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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 June 2020

Saganga Mussa Kapaya

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to empirical evidence by recognizing the importance of stock markets in the financial system and consequently its causality to economic…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to empirical evidence by recognizing the importance of stock markets in the financial system and consequently its causality to economic growth and vice versa.

Design/methodology/approach

The study used the autoregressive distribute lag model (ARDL) with bound testing procedures, the sample covered quarterly time-series data from 2001q1 to 2019q2 in Tanzania.

Findings

The results suggest that stock market development have both negative and positive causality for both short-run dynamics and long-run relationship with economic growth. Economic growth is found to only cause and relate negatively to liquidity both in the short-run and in the long-run. The results show predominantly a unidirectional causality flow from stock market development to economic growth and finds partial causality flow from economic growth to stock market development, as represented by stock market turnover which proxied liquidity.

Originality/value

The use of quarterly data to reflect more realistically the dynamics of the variables because yearly data may sometimes cover-up specific dynamics that may be useful for prediction and policy planning. The study uses indices to capture general aspects within the stock market against economic growth as an intuitive way to aggregate the stock market development effects.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. 5 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 September 2023

Amit Rohilla, Neeta Tripathi and Varun Bhandari

In a first of its kind, this paper tries to explore the long-run relationship between investors' sentiment and selected industries' returns over the period January 2010 to…

Abstract

Purpose

In a first of its kind, this paper tries to explore the long-run relationship between investors' sentiment and selected industries' returns over the period January 2010 to December 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses 23 market and macroeconomic proxies to measure investor sentiment. Principal component analysis has been used to create sentiment sub-indices that represent investor sentiment. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and other sophisticated econometric techniques such as the unit root test, the cumulative sum (CUSUM) stability test, regression, etc. have been used to achieve the objectives of the study.

Findings

The authors find that there is a significant relationship between sentiment sub-indices and industries' returns over the period of study. Market and economic variables, market ratios, advance-decline ratio, high-low index, price-to-book value ratio and liquidity in the economy are some of the significant sub-indices explaining industries' returns.

Research limitations/implications

The study has relevant implications for retail investors, policy-makers and other decision-makers in the Indian stock market. Results are helpful for the investor in improving their decision-making and identifying those sentiment sub-indices and the variables therein that are relevant in explaining the return of a particular industry.

Originality/value

The study contributes to the existing literature by exploring the relationship between sentiment and industries' returns in the Indian stock market and by identifying relevant sentiment sub-indices. Also, the study supports the investors' irrationality, which arises due to a plethora of behavioral biases as enshrined in classical finance.

Article
Publication date: 1 September 2006

V.K.J. Jeevan and P. Padhi

The paper aims to assess the level of preparedness of the Central Libraries of the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) to personalize content and seeks to determine whether the…

Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to assess the level of preparedness of the Central Libraries of the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) to personalize content and seeks to determine whether the personalization service prototype being developed at IIT Kharagpur can be extrapolated to the remaining IITs.

Design/methodology/approach

A questionnaire was sent to the Librarians of the seven IITs, designed to compare the available information resources and services, with special emphasis on user interests and personalization aspects. The survey was supplemented by study visits to a couple of the Institutes.

Findings

Kharagpur and Mumbai have implemented personalization services in some form while the remaining IITs plan to adopt them in the near future. There is also a strong case for extending Kharagpur's personalization service, currently in project mode, to the other IITs.

Research limitations/implications

IIT Madras and IIT Kanpur failed to return the questionnaires, so relevant information regarding these Institutes had to be collected from their web sites and other available sources. There is also scope for further research to accurately access the current status of personalization activities in all the IITs.

Practical implications

With parallel interests and similar research and information facilities, personalization services in one IIT can be replicated and utilized by all the others, leading to greatly enhanced library services in all the Institutes.

Originality/value

This one of a kind survey underlines the need for and possibility of making content personalization a reality in advanced technical libraries. The results obtained are valuable to all IIT libraries in particular and academic/technical libraries in general.

Details

The Electronic Library, vol. 24 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0264-0473

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 December 2022

Eswara Krishna Mussada

The purpose of the study is to establish a predictive model for sustainable wire electrical discharge machining (WEDM) by using adaptive neuro fuzzy interface system (ANFIS)…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the study is to establish a predictive model for sustainable wire electrical discharge machining (WEDM) by using adaptive neuro fuzzy interface system (ANFIS). Machining was done on Titanium grade 2 alloy, which is also nicknamed as workhorse of commercially pure titanium industry. ANFIS, being a state-of-the-art technology, is a highly sophisticated and reliable technique used for the prediction and decision-making.

Design/methodology/approach

Keeping in the mind the complex nature of WEDM along with the goal of sustainable manufacturing process, ANFIS was chosen to construct predictive models for the material removal rate (MRR) and power consumption (Pc), which reflect environmental and economic aspects. The machining parameters chosen for the machining process are pulse on-time, wire feed, wire tension, servo voltage, servo feed and peak current.

Findings

The ANFIS predicted values were verified experimentally, which gave a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.329 for MRR and 0.805 for Pc. The significantly low RMSE verifies the accuracy of the process.

Originality/value

ANFIS has been there for quite a time, but it has not been used yet for its possible application in the field of sustainable WEDM of titanium grade-2 alloy with emphasis on MRR and Pc. The novelty of the work is that a predictive model for sustainable machining of titanium grade-2 alloy has been successfully developed using ANFIS, thereby showing the reliability of this technique for the development of predictive models and decision-making for sustainable manufacturing.

Details

World Journal of Engineering, vol. 21 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1708-5284

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 June 2021

Wafa Abdelmalek

This paper examines the relationship between volatility, sentiment and returns in terms of levels and changes for both lower and higher data frequencies using quantile regression…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper examines the relationship between volatility, sentiment and returns in terms of levels and changes for both lower and higher data frequencies using quantile regression (QR) method.

Design/methodology/approach

In the first step, the study applies the Granger causality test to understand the causal relationship between realized volatility, returns and sentiment as levels and changes. In the second step, the study employs a QR method to investigate whether investor sentiment and returns can predict realized volatility. This regression method gives robust results irrespective of distributional assumptions and to outliers in the dependent variable.

Findings

Empirical results show that the VIX volatility index is a better fear gauge of market-wide investors' sentiments and has a predictive power for future realized volatility in terms of levels and changes for both higher and lower data frequencies. This study provides evidence that the relationship between realized volatility, investor sentiment and returns, respectively, is not symmetric for all quantiles of QR, as opposed to OLS regression. Furthermore, this work supports the behavioral theory beyond leverage hypothesis in explaining the asymmetric relation between returns and volatility at higher and lower data frequencies.

Originality/value

This paper adds to the limited understanding of investor sentiment’s impact on volatility by proposing a QR model which provides a more complete picture of the relationship at all parts of the volatility distribution for both higher and lower data frequencies and in terms of levels and changes. To the author knowledge, this is the first paper to study the volatility responses to positive and negative sentiment changes for developed market and to use both lower and higher data frequencies as well as data in terms of levels and changes.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 14 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 October 2020

Isaac Cliford Queku, Seth Gyedu and Emmanuel Carsamer

The purpose of the paper is to investigate the causal relationships and speed of adjustment of stock prices to changes in macroeconomic information (MEI) in Ghana from 1996 to…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the paper is to investigate the causal relationships and speed of adjustment of stock prices to changes in macroeconomic information (MEI) in Ghana from 1996 to 2018 using monthly data. The paper seeks to conduct the investigation at individual MEI level rather than the composite MEI.

Design/methodology/approach

Quantitative approach was used in this paper. Monthly data span of 1996–2018 was used. The delay and half-life technique was used to determine the speed with which the information resulting from the changes in the macroeconomic are evident in the stock price. Thereafter, Toda–Yamamoto Granger no-causality approach was used to examine the causal relationship amongst variables.

Findings

The paper revealed that although the market adjustment to MEI has improved, the speed is till slow. The exchange rate exhibited the slowest speed in respect of the market reaction while the market reaction to money supply was the fastest. Toda–Yamamoto Granger no-causality estimation also revealed a bi-directional causality between MEI (gross domestic product, interest rate and money supply) and stock price and uni-directional relationship flowing from MEI (the exchange rate and foreign direct investment) to stock price. The paper also found no causality between inflation and stock price.

Research limitations/implications

The findings although revealed improved level of market efficiency in comparison with the earlier data, the speed of adjustment is still undesirable. Rigorous approach should be adopted for the implementation of major reforms such as alternative market so as to increase the number of share listing and to increase the scope of investors' participation to enhancing trading volume and marketability and ultimately speed up information diffusion.

Practical implications

The practical implication of the low level of information processing rate of Ghana Stock Exchange (averagely more than a month) is that astute investors and market analysts could employ MEI to outperform the market prior to their infusion onto the stock market.

Originality/value

This study is one of the few studies in the Ghanaian literature that has extended the investigation of the speed of adjustment beyond composite or aggregate macroeconomic level estimation to estimation at individual variable level. This contribution is very relevant since each macroeconomic variable has unique characteristics and require specific policy framework, it is important to consider the speed of adjustment from the perspective of each of the individual variables.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 July 2018

Venkata Narasimha Chary Mushinada and Venkata Subrahmanya Sarma Veluri

The purpose of the paper is to empirically test the overconfidence hypothesis at Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the paper is to empirically test the overconfidence hypothesis at Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).

Design/methodology/approach

The study applies bivariate vector autoregression to perform the impulse-response analysis and EGARCH models to understand whether there is self-attribution bias and overconfidence behavior among the investors.

Findings

The study shows the empirical evidence in support of overconfidence hypothesis. The results show that the overconfident investors overreact to private information and underreact to the public information. Based on EGARCH specifications, it is observed that self-attribution bias, conditioned by right forecasts, increases investors’ overconfidence and the trading volume. Finally, the analysis of the relation between return volatility and trading volume shows that the excessive trading of overconfident investors makes a contribution to the observed excessive volatility.

Research limitations/implications

The study focused on self-attribution and overconfidence biases using monthly data. Further studies can be encouraged to test the proposed hypotheses on daily data and also other behavioral biases.

Practical implications

Insights from the study suggest that the investors should perform a post-analysis of each investment so that they become aware of past behavioral mistakes and stop continuing the same. This might help investors to minimize the negative impact of self-attribution and overconfidence on their expected utility.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the investors’ overconfidence behavior at market-level data in BSE, India.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 14 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 June 2023

Anshuman Kumar, Chandramani Upadhyay, Ram Subbiah and Dusanapudi Siva Nagaraju

This paper aims to investigate the influence of “BroncoCut-X” (copper core-ZnCu50 coating) electrode on the machining of Ti-3Al-2.5V in view of its extensive use in aerospace and…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the influence of “BroncoCut-X” (copper core-ZnCu50 coating) electrode on the machining of Ti-3Al-2.5V in view of its extensive use in aerospace and medical applications. The machining parameters are selected as Spark-off Time (SToff), Spark-on Time (STon), Wire-speed (Sw), Wire-Tension (WT) and Servo-Voltage (Sv) to explore the machining outcomes. The response characteristics are measured in terms of material removal rate (MRR), average kerf width (KW) and average-surface roughness (SA).

Design/methodology/approach

Taguchi’s approach is used to design the experiment. The “AC Progress V2 high precision CNC-WEDM” is used to conduct the experiments with ϕ 0.25 mm diameter wire electrode. The machining performance characteristics are examined using main effect plots and analysis of variance. The grey-relation analysis and fuzzy interference system techniques have been developed to combine (called grey-fuzzy reasoning grade) the experimental response while Rao-Algorithm is used to calculate the optimal performance.

Findings

The hybrid optimization result is obtained as SToff = 50µs, STon = 105µs, Sw = 7 m/min, WT = 12N and Sv=20V. Additionally, the result is compared with the firefly algorithm and improved gray-wolf optimizer to check the efficacy of the intended approach. The confirmatory test has been further conducted to verify optimization results and recorded 8.14% overall machinability enhancement. Moreover, the scanning electron microscopy analysis further demonstrated effectiveness in the WEDMed surface with a maximum 4.32 µm recast layer.

Originality/value

The adopted methodology helped to attain the highest machinability level. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this work is the first investigation within the considered parametric range and adopted optimization technique for Ti-3Al-2.5V using the wire-electro discharge machining.

Details

World Journal of Engineering, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1708-5284

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 December 2020

Tihana Škrinjarić, Zrinka Lovretin Golubić and Zrinka Orlović

This paper aims to analyze the effects of investors’ sentiment, return and risk series on one to another of selected exchange rates. The empirical analysis consists of a…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to analyze the effects of investors’ sentiment, return and risk series on one to another of selected exchange rates. The empirical analysis consists of a time-varying inter-dependence between the observed variables, with the focus on spillovers between the variables.

Design/methodology/approach

Monthly data on the index Sentix, exchange rates EUR–USD, EUR–CHF and EUR–JPY are analyzed from February 2003 to December 2019. The applied methodology consists of vector autoregression models (VAR) with Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2011) spillover indices.

Findings

The results of the empirical research indicate that using static analysis could result in misleading conclusions, with dynamic analysis indicating that the financial of 2007-2008 and specific negative events increase the spillovers of shock between the observed variables for all three exchange rates. The sources of shocks in the model change over time because of variables changing their positions being net emitters and net receivers of shocks.

Research limitations/implications

The shortfalls of this study include using the monthly data frequency, as this was available for the authors, namely, investors are interested to obtain new information on a weekly and daily basis, not only monthly. However, at the time of writing this research, we could obtain only monthly data.

Practical implications

As the obtained results are in line with previous literature and were found to be robust, there exists the potential to use such analysis in the future when forecasting risk and return series for portfolio management purposes. Thus, a basic comparison was made regarding the investment strategies, which were based on the results from the estimation. It was shown that using information about shock spillovers could result in strategies that can obtain better portfolio value over time compared to basic benchmark strategies.

Originality/value

First, this paper allows for the spillovers of shocks in variables within the VAR models in all directions. Second, a dynamic analysis is included in the study. Third, the mentioned spillover indices are included in the study as well.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 38 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 March 2023

Jasleen Kaur and Khushdeep Dharni

The stock market generates massive databases of various financial companies that are highly volatile and complex. To forecast daily stock values of these companies, investors…

Abstract

Purpose

The stock market generates massive databases of various financial companies that are highly volatile and complex. To forecast daily stock values of these companies, investors frequently use technical analysis or fundamental analysis. Data mining techniques coupled with fundamental and technical analysis types have the potential to give satisfactory results for stock market prediction. In the current paper, an effort is made to investigate the accuracy of stock market predictions by using the combined approach of variables from technical and fundamental analysis for the creation of a data mining predictive model.

Design/methodology/approach

We chose 381 companies from the National Stock Exchange of India's CNX 500 index and conducted a two-stage data analysis. The first stage is identifying key fundamental variables and constructing a portfolio based on that study. Artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machines (SVM) and decision tree J48 were used to build the models. The second stage entails applying technical analysis to forecast price movements in the companies included in the portfolios. ANN and SVM techniques were used to create predictive models for all companies in the portfolios. We also estimated returns using trading decisions based on the model's output and then compared them to buy-and-hold returns and the return of the NIFTY 50 index, which served as a benchmark.

Findings

The results show that the returns of both the portfolios are higher than the benchmark buy-and-hold strategy return. It can be concluded that data mining techniques give better results, irrespective of the type of stock, and have the ability to make up for poor stocks. The comparison of returns of portfolios with the return of NIFTY as a benchmark also indicates that both the portfolios are generating higher returns as compared to the return generated by NIFTY.

Originality/value

As stock prices are influenced by both technical and fundamental indicators, the current paper explored the combined effect of technical analysis and fundamental analysis variables for Indian stock market prediction. Further, the results obtained by individual analysis have also been compared. The proposed method under study can also be utilized to determine whether to hold stocks for the long or short term using trend-based research.

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